Bid / no-bid decision matrix: should you bid for this tender?
Stop pricing tenders you can't win. Score the contract against your firm in under a minute. Six axes, one verdict: Bid, Borderline or No bid. Free, runs in your browser, no signup.
Pick the sector
Different sectors weigh different accreditations and risks.
Tick the accreditations you actually hold
Only count current, in-date certificates you can produce on demand.
Money
Buyers want turnover at minimum two times the contract's annual value, plus three years of accounts.
Turnover ratio: 3.00× the contract value.
Region and capacity
Local mobilisation and spare hours are silent kingmakers in soft FM scoring.
Risk flags
Tick anything the contract requires that you don't already have a track record in.
Strategic reasons to bid
The reasons a borderline tender becomes a yes.
Live verdict
Verdict
No bid
Walk away. Pipeline elsewhere.
What's working
- Turnover 3.0× contract, comfortably above the 2× floor
- Already operating in the buyer's region
- No specialist risk flags raised
What's costing you points
- Missing required: BICSc trained operatives; ISO 9001 (Quality); SSIP (CHAS, SafeContractor or Constructionline); Public Liability £10m+
Better use of your week
Skip this one. Find the tenders you can actually win.
AI Tender Writer scores each live UK soft FM tender against your profile the day it is published, then helps you write the bid. Start your free 14-day trial, no card.
Start free trialHow the score is calculated
Six axes, weighted average, no magic.
Each axis returns 0 to 100. We multiply by the weight, sum the lot, divide by 100. That's your final score. The verdict bands sit at 80 and 60.
Weight 25%
Required accreditations
BICSc for cleaning. SIA ACS for security. NPTC for grounds. HACCP for catering. Below the spec's required floor, the matrix scores you down hard. Optional accreditations add small uplifts.
Weight 20%
Financial standing
Turnover divided by annual contract value. 2× and above is the common buyer benchmark. Under 1× is a hard penalty. Under 3 years trading also costs you points across the financial axis.
Weight 15%
Region coverage
Already operating in the buyer's region scores 100. Adjacent (work nearby) drops to 60. Mobilising fresh from elsewhere scores 20. Local presence is a silent kingmaker on technical evaluation.
Weight 15%
Capacity and mobilisation
Spare hours plus a fast mobilisation timeline scores high. Tight capacity with a slow start hurts. Buyers reject 8-week+ mobilisation timelines by default. They want hands on the floor by week four.
Weight 15%
Risk flags
NHS infection control, defence vetting, school safeguarding, large TUPE inheritance, specialist work you've never done. Each risk you can't already deliver deducts 25 from the axis score.
Weight 10%
Strategic fit
First contract in a new sector, framework call-off, existing buyer in another category, geographic fit. The reasons that turn a borderline tender into a yes, but only when the other axes hold.
Why bid / no-bid matters
The single biggest hit-rate lever for soft FM SMEs.
Hit rate is what makes a bid team profitable. The maths: writing five bids at 40% conversion beats writing twenty bids at 10%, with a fifth of the burnout. The bid no bid decision is what separates those two worlds. Most contractors do it on gut feel. Gut feel says yes far too often.
When to override the matrix
- Borderline + framework call-off. One win opens four years of mini-comps. Take the borderline.
- No bid + first reference. If a sub-60 score is your only route into a sector you want long-term, bid lean and price for the reference, not the margin.
- Bid + over capacity. A high score with no spare hours is a delivery risk. Either subcontract a portion or no-bid.
Worked example
A £400k guarding contract scores 77. Borderline, and here is why.
A 40-guard security firm looks at a council guarding contract across three civic buildings. It already cleans for the same council through a sister company. These are the answers it gave the matrix.
| Factor | Answer | Score |
|---|---|---|
Accreditations 25% weight SIA ACS, BS 7858, ISO 9001, £10m PL all held | SIA ACS, BS 7858, ISO 9001, £10m PL all held | 100 |
Financial 20% weight £1.1m turnover on a £400k contract (2.75×), 6 years trading | £1.1m turnover on a £400k contract (2.75×), 6 years trading | 100 |
Region 15% weight Adjacent. Two sites in the next county | Adjacent. Two sites in the next county | 60 |
Capacity 15% weight Tight, would need to recruit. 4 to 8 week mobilisation | Tight, would need to recruit. 4 to 8 week mobilisation | 63 |
Risk 15% weight One flag: 30 guards transfer under TUPE | One flag: 30 guards transfer under TUPE | 75 |
Strategic fit 10% weight Existing buyer, new category | Existing buyer, new category | 25 |
Verdict
77 / 100
Borderline
Bid, but only because the buyer already knows them. The weak spots are capacity and the TUPE list. Price the transfer with the TUPE estimator, line up recruitment before submission, and say so in the mobilisation answer.
The fix for a borderline score is rarely a better answer. It is evidence. Put a number on the transfer with the TUPE cost estimator and check the rota with the staff hours calculator before you commit.
Stop filling this in by hand for every tender.
AI Tender Writer runs the check on each new UK soft FM tender the day it is published, so you only read the ones worth bidding. Free for 14 days, no card.
What the score looks like in each sector.
Accreditations decide more no-bids than anything else. On security guarding tenders, no SIA Approved Contractor status means no bid, full stop. On cleaning tenders, the gap is usually SSIP, and our SSIP comparison shows which scheme to get first.
Grounds maintenance tenders hinge on spraying certificates and seasonal capacity. Waste management tenders check your carrier registration and vehicle fleet before anything else. Catering tenders will not look past a food hygiene rating under 5.
A verdict of bid is the start, not the finish. Check your selection paperwork with the SQ readiness checker, then study the bid writing examples and score your own drafts with the bid answer grader. New to public sector work? Read whether a new business can win a government tender, then browse live soft FM contracts and run the matrix on a real one.
Bid / no-bid questions, answered.
How do you decide whether to bid for a tender?
Score the tender against your firm before anyone writes a word. Check six things: do you hold every required accreditation, is your turnover big enough for the contract, do you already work in the area, do you have the staff and a realistic start date, does the contract carry risks you have never handled, and is there a strategic reason to want it. Weight them, add them up, and set a line. Ours is 80 for a clear bid and 60 for a borderline call. Anything under 60 is a no bid unless you have a very good reason. The matrix above does the sums in under a minute.
What is a good bid / no-bid score?
80 or above is a bid. 60 to 79 is borderline, which means a strategic call rather than an automatic yes. Under 60 is a no bid. Most SME wins actually come from the borderline band, but only when one or two strategic reasons are real, like a framework that opens four years of call-offs or a first reference in a new sector. If you find yourself inventing strategic reasons to rescue a 55, walk away and spend the week on a better tender.
What turnover do I need to bid for a public sector contract?
Plan on turnover of around twice the annual contract value. Buyers set financial conditions of participation, and two times annual value became the common benchmark under the old rules. Under the Procurement Act 2023 buyers must keep conditions proportionate, so some ask for less, especially on lots aimed at SMEs. Below 1× you will usually fail the financial check no matter how good your delivery is. The matrix scores 2× and above as full marks, 1× to 2× as marginal, and knocks 20 points off if you have traded for less than three years.
What are the most common reasons to no-bid a tender?
Missing a mandatory accreditation tops the list, because it fails you at selection before anyone reads your quality answers. Next come turnover too small for the contract, no presence in the region, and a mobilisation date you can't hit. Then the specialist risks: NHS infection control with no NHS track record, school safeguarding with no schools work, 25+ staff transferring under TUPE. One of these is manageable. Two or more and the incumbent will beat you on technical scores.
Is the bid / no-bid tool free, and are my answers saved?
Yes, it is free with no signup. The scoring runs in your browser and your answers stay there. Refresh the page and they reset. If you want a copy, use the email option under the result and we send you the score and reasons once. No mailing list. Inside a AI Tender Writer account the same scoring runs against your saved company profile on every live UK soft FM tender, so you don't have to fill it in again.
Which sectors does the matrix cover?
Five soft FM sectors: cleaning, security, grounds maintenance, waste and hygiene, and catering. Each one has its own accreditation list and its own risk flags. Cleaning checks BICSc training, ISO 9001 and SSIP. Security checks SIA Approved Contractor status and BS 7858 vetting. Grounds checks NPTC spraying certificates. Waste checks your waste carrier registration. Catering checks HACCP and a food hygiene rating of 5. The weights stay the same across sectors so you can compare tenders side by side.
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